Time-varying Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its Implications as a Means of Disease Surveillance on Lockdown Restrictions.
Identifieur interne : 000057 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000056; suivant : 000058Time-varying Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its Implications as a Means of Disease Surveillance on Lockdown Restrictions.
Auteurs : Eman A. Toraih [États-Unis, Égypte] ; Mohammad H. Hussein [États-Unis] ; Rami M. Elshazli [Égypte] ; Manal S. Fawzy [Égypte] ; August Houghton [États-Unis] ; Danielle Tatum [États-Unis] ; Mary Killackey [États-Unis] ; Emad Kandil [États-Unis] ; Juan Duchesne [États-Unis]Source :
- Annals of surgery [ 1528-1140 ] ; 2021.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- méthodes : Contrôle des maladies transmissibles.
- statistiques et données numériques : Transmission de maladie infectieuse.
- épidémiologie : États-Unis.
- Facteurs temps, Humains, Pandémies, Études de suivi.
- Wicri :
- geographic : États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : United States.
- epidemiology : COVID-19.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Transmission, Infectious.
- transmission : COVID-19.
- Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2, Time Factors.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To quantify the time-varying reproductive rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its implication in Louisiana.
SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA
Basic reproductive number (R0) and effective reproductive number (Re or Rt) are 2 measures of the ability of an infectious agent to spread in the environment. They differ in that R0 assumes zero immunity in the population, while Re or Rt accounts for change over time. Reproductive number modeling is influenced by several factors, including serial interval, the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector, and a secondary case. Quantification of the ability of a pathogen to spread is essential in guiding policy.
METHODS
Here, we construct epidemic curves and calculate daily Rt values for the state of Louisiana and each of its 9 regions.
RESULTS
Our results demonstrated variation over both time and geography in calculated R0 and Rt values. Generally, as time has progressed, predicted R0 and Rt values have decreased. In Louisiana, mean Rt was calculated at 3.07 in March and 0.82 by May. A reproductive number less than one is important as it indicates infectious spread will decline with time. The most recent finding of mean Rt = 0.82 is important. It stands in stark contrast to the situation in April when New Orleans, Louisiana, had the highest per capita coronavirus mortality rate in the United States - twice that of New York City and 4 times the rate in Seattle.
CONCLUSION
As locations around the world begin to lift restrictions, monitoring of infectious spread will be essential.
DOI: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000004590
PubMed: 33156065
PubMed Central: PMC7737874
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Toraih</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Louisiane</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans</wicri:cityArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Genetics Unit, Department of Histology and Cell Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Égypte</country><wicri:regionArea>Genetics Unit, Department of Histology and Cell Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ismailia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hussein, Mohammad H" sort="Hussein, Mohammad H" uniqKey="Hussein M" first="Mohammad H" last="Hussein">Mohammad H. Hussein</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Louisiane</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Elshazli, Rami M" sort="Elshazli, Rami M" uniqKey="Elshazli R" first="Rami M" last="Elshazli">Rami M. Elshazli</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, Faculty of Physical Therapy, Horus University - Egypt, New Damietta, Egypt.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Égypte</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, Faculty of Physical Therapy, Horus University - Egypt, New Damietta</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>New Damietta</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fawzy, Manal S" sort="Fawzy, Manal S" uniqKey="Fawzy M" first="Manal S" last="Fawzy">Manal S. Fawzy</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Égypte</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ismailia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biochemistry, College of Medicine, Northern Border University, Arar, KSA.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">KSA</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Houghton, August" sort="Houghton, August" uniqKey="Houghton A" first="August" last="Houghton">August Houghton</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Louisiane</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tatum, Danielle" sort="Tatum, Danielle" uniqKey="Tatum D" first="Danielle" last="Tatum">Danielle Tatum</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Academic Research Director, Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Louisiane</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Academic Research Director, Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center, Baton Rouge</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Killackey, Mary" sort="Killackey, Mary" uniqKey="Killackey M" first="Mary" last="Killackey">Mary Killackey</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Louisiane</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kandil, Emad" sort="Kandil, Emad" uniqKey="Kandil E" first="Emad" last="Kandil">Emad Kandil</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Division of Endocrine and Oncologic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Louisiane</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Division of Endocrine and Oncologic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Duchesne, Juan" sort="Duchesne, Juan" uniqKey="Duchesne J" first="Juan" last="Duchesne">Juan Duchesne</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Trauma/Acute Care and Critical Care, Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Trauma/Acute Care and Critical Care, Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Louisiane</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Annals of surgery</title><idno type="eISSN">1528-1140</idno><imprint><date when="2021" type="published">2021</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>COVID-19 (epidemiology)</term><term>COVID-19 (transmission)</term><term>Communicable Disease Control (methods)</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Follow-Up Studies (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term><term>SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH)</term><term>Time Factors (MeSH)</term><term>United States (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Contrôle des maladies transmissibles (méthodes)</term><term>Facteurs temps (MeSH)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Pandémies (MeSH)</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>États-Unis (épidémiologie)</term><term>Études de suivi (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>COVID-19</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Disease Control</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="méthodes" xml:lang="fr"><term>Contrôle des maladies transmissibles</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistiques et données numériques" xml:lang="fr"><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>COVID-19</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>États-Unis</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Follow-Up Studies</term><term>Humans</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>SARS-CoV-2</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Humains</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Études de suivi</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>États-Unis</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>OBJECTIVE</b></p><p>To quantify the time-varying reproductive rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its implication in Louisiana.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA</b></p><p>Basic reproductive number (R0) and effective reproductive number (Re or Rt) are 2 measures of the ability of an infectious agent to spread in the environment. They differ in that R0 assumes zero immunity in the population, while Re or Rt accounts for change over time. Reproductive number modeling is influenced by several factors, including serial interval, the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector, and a secondary case. Quantification of the ability of a pathogen to spread is essential in guiding policy.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>Here, we construct epidemic curves and calculate daily Rt values for the state of Louisiana and each of its 9 regions.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Our results demonstrated variation over both time and geography in calculated R0 and Rt values. Generally, as time has progressed, predicted R0 and Rt values have decreased. In Louisiana, mean Rt was calculated at 3.07 in March and 0.82 by May. A reproductive number less than one is important as it indicates infectious spread will decline with time. The most recent finding of mean Rt = 0.82 is important. It stands in stark contrast to the situation in April when New Orleans, Louisiana, had the highest per capita coronavirus mortality rate in the United States - twice that of New York City and 4 times the rate in Seattle.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>As locations around the world begin to lift restrictions, monitoring of infectious spread will be essential.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33156065</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>29</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>29</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1528-1140</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>273</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>01</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Annals of surgery</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Ann Surg</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Time-varying Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its Implications as a Means of Disease Surveillance on Lockdown Restrictions.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>28-33</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1097/SLA.0000000000004590</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVE">To quantify the time-varying reproductive rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its implication in Louisiana.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA">Basic reproductive number (R0) and effective reproductive number (Re or Rt) are 2 measures of the ability of an infectious agent to spread in the environment. They differ in that R0 assumes zero immunity in the population, while Re or Rt accounts for change over time. Reproductive number modeling is influenced by several factors, including serial interval, the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector, and a secondary case. Quantification of the ability of a pathogen to spread is essential in guiding policy.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS">Here, we construct epidemic curves and calculate daily Rt values for the state of Louisiana and each of its 9 regions.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS">Our results demonstrated variation over both time and geography in calculated R0 and Rt values. Generally, as time has progressed, predicted R0 and Rt values have decreased. In Louisiana, mean Rt was calculated at 3.07 in March and 0.82 by May. A reproductive number less than one is important as it indicates infectious spread will decline with time. The most recent finding of mean Rt = 0.82 is important. It stands in stark contrast to the situation in April when New Orleans, Louisiana, had the highest per capita coronavirus mortality rate in the United States - twice that of New York City and 4 times the rate in Seattle.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION">As locations around the world begin to lift restrictions, monitoring of infectious spread will be essential.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Toraih</LastName><ForeName>Eman A</ForeName><Initials>EA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Genetics Unit, Department of Histology and Cell Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hussein</LastName><ForeName>Mohammad H</ForeName><Initials>MH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Elshazli</LastName><ForeName>Rami M</ForeName><Initials>RM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, Faculty of Physical Therapy, Horus University - Egypt, New Damietta, Egypt.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fawzy</LastName><ForeName>Manal S</ForeName><Initials>MS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biochemistry, College of Medicine, Northern Border University, Arar, KSA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Houghton</LastName><ForeName>August</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tatum</LastName><ForeName>Danielle</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Academic Research Director, Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Killackey</LastName><ForeName>Mary</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kandil</LastName><ForeName>Emad</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of Endocrine and Oncologic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Duchesne</LastName><ForeName>Juan</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Trauma/Acute Care and Critical Care, Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D017418">Meta-Analysis</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016454">Review</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Ann Surg</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0372354</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0003-4932</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>AIM</CitationSubset><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000086382" MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003140" MajorTopicYN="N">Communicable Disease Control</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000379" MajorTopicYN="Y">methods</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018562" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Transmission, Infectious</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="Y">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005500" MajorTopicYN="N">Follow-Up Studies</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="Y">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000086402" MajorTopicYN="Y">SARS-CoV-2</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013997" MajorTopicYN="N">Time Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014481" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">United States</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><CoiStatement>The authors declare no conflict of interests.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>30</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>6</Day><Hour>12</Hour><Minute>11</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">33156065</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">00000658-202101000-00007</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1097/SLA.0000000000004590</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7737874</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Math Biosci. 2020 Jul;325:108370</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32387384</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1199-1207</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId 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A. Toraih</name></region><name sortKey="Duchesne, Juan" sort="Duchesne, Juan" uniqKey="Duchesne J" first="Juan" last="Duchesne">Juan Duchesne</name><name sortKey="Houghton, August" sort="Houghton, August" uniqKey="Houghton A" first="August" last="Houghton">August Houghton</name><name sortKey="Hussein, Mohammad H" sort="Hussein, Mohammad H" uniqKey="Hussein M" first="Mohammad H" last="Hussein">Mohammad H. Hussein</name><name sortKey="Kandil, Emad" sort="Kandil, Emad" uniqKey="Kandil E" first="Emad" last="Kandil">Emad Kandil</name><name sortKey="Killackey, Mary" sort="Killackey, Mary" uniqKey="Killackey M" first="Mary" last="Killackey">Mary Killackey</name><name sortKey="Tatum, Danielle" sort="Tatum, Danielle" uniqKey="Tatum D" first="Danielle" last="Tatum">Danielle Tatum</name></country><country name="Égypte"><noRegion><name sortKey="Toraih, Eman A" sort="Toraih, Eman A" uniqKey="Toraih E" first="Eman A" last="Toraih">Eman A. Toraih</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Elshazli, Rami M" sort="Elshazli, Rami M" uniqKey="Elshazli R" first="Rami M" last="Elshazli">Rami M. Elshazli</name><name sortKey="Fawzy, Manal S" sort="Fawzy, Manal S" uniqKey="Fawzy M" first="Manal S" last="Fawzy">Manal S. Fawzy</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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